The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hennessy. Both stocks now sit near their lows: Hermès is down more than 50% from its February 2025 peak and trades at 32 times earnings for the first time in a decade, while LVMH has fallen to a five-year low after two straight years of declining sales — something that didn't even happen in 2009. The luxury industry has lost roughly 70 million customers since 2022, the Chinese market that tripled between 2017 and 2021 has been shrinking ever since, and a war in the Gulf emptied the stores on the Champs-Élysées of their best-spending tourists.

But some brands are growing. Daniel and Shawn work out why Richemont can grow 20% in the same quarter LVMH grows 3%, why Hermès still earns a 41% margin while LVMH's fashion and leather division has given back seven points of margin in five years, and why the top 0.1% of luxury clients keep spending while the aspirational buyer walks away. They also cover the Chinese property bust and its five-to-six-year playbook, and how prior luxury downturns in 2009, 2016, and 2020 ended. In the end, Daniel updates both valuation models and decides whether either Hermès or LVMH finally earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:41) About the state of the luxury market

(00:14:03) How Hermès’ business has done since our first pitch

(00:18:31) What makes LVMH and Hermès special

(00:26:59) How LVMH’s business has done since our first pitch

(00:29:00) How China is impacting the luxury market

(00:35:54) How long past luxury downturns were

(00:55:02) Why Hermès has an even better chance of recovering quickly

(01:01:43) Valuation discussion

(01:03:27) Intrinsic value of RMS

(01:05:02) Intrinsic value of LVMH

(01:05:25) Whether LVMH or RMS will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Original Episode on Hermès.

Original Episode on LVMH.

BCG Sector Analysis.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Restoration Hardware, Formula One Group, Hermès, LVMH.

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In today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss HEICO and TransDigm, two dominant players in the aerospace components industry known for their pricing power and resiliency. They’ll compare how each company grows through acquisitions and organic expansion, how they approach debt and capital allocation, and what gives each business its durable competitive advantages. The discussion also covers the risks facing both companies, including regulatory scrutiny and reliance on continued aerospace demand, as well as potential sources of future growth.


IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:05:30) How TransDigm built its sole-source pricing power model

(00:09:00) How HEICO competes by underpricing original equipment manufacturers

(00:15:03) Why the aerospace industry has such high barriers to entry

(00:18:24) Why both companies rely heavily on acquisitions to grow

(00:25:33) How each company’s approach to debt differs sharply

(00:29:24) Why regulators have started scrutinizing TransDigm’s acquisition strategy

(00:42:43) What gives HEICO and TransDigm such durable competitive advantages

(00:47:20) How ownership and incentive structures shape each management team

(01:00:39) What risks could disrupt either company’s long runway of growth

(01:04:42) Where future growth could come from for both businesses

(01:09:52) Valuation discussion

(01:12:48) Intrinsic value of HEICO

(01:13:17) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add HEICO or TransDigm to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Listen to the TransDigm episode with Daniel and Shawn.

Listen to our HEICO episode with Clay Finck.

Listen to the TransDigm Foundations with Nicholas Howley.

Listen to TransDigm episode with Nicholas Howley.

Read The Compounders book.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Copart, Comfort Systems, SpaceX, Copa Holdings.

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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss Walmart and how it grew from Sam Walton's small-town five-and-dime into a retail giant. Today, it also makes money from e-commerce, a marketplace, advertising and memberships. They cover the scale advantages behind Walmart's everyday low prices, how its suppliers end up financing its inventory, and why its power over those suppliers continues to draw antitrust scrutiny. They also look at Walmart's capital allocation, management, growth levers and the biggest risks facing the business.


IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:39) How Sam Walton’s early franchise lessons shaped Walmart’s strategy

(00:09:29) Why trading margin for volume remains core to Walmart

(00:13:36) How Walmart makes money beyond traditional brick-and-mortar retail

(00:24:21) Why everyday low prices built lasting customer trust

(00:31:15) How negative working capital supports Walmart’s free cash flow

(00:34:16) What the PepsiCo case reveals about Walmart’s supplier power

(00:37:41) How Walmart splits capital between buybacks, dividends and reinvestment

(00:45:42) Why the Jet.com acquisition was a good acquisition despite the write-down

(00:57:56) Where Walmart’s future growth may come from

(01:02:12) How agentic AI shopping could threaten Walmart’s customer relationships

(01:07:39) Valuation discussion of Walmart

(01:08:54) Walmart's intrinsic value

(01:10:53) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add Walmart to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Buy your copy of Sam Walton’s autobiography Made In America.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Lululemon, Nike, Ulta, Our Biggest Losers.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), the advertising machine behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp that reaches 3.6 billion people every day — over 40% of the world's population — and just grew ad revenue 27% to a nearly $240 billion annual run rate. Yet the stock trades more than 20% below its highs, because the money is going out even faster than it's coming in: operating margins fell from 43% to 31% in a single year, quarterly free cash flow collapsed from $8.5 billion to $784 million, and capex guidance now sits at $130–145 billion this year — with analysts penciling in $200 billion for next.

Daniel and Shawn dig into what all that spending actually buys. Is this Mark Zuckerberg's third failed attempt to turn Meta into a platform — after the FarmVille-era Facebook apps and a $100 billion metaverse — or does AI finally make the vision real, whether through AI glasses, a personal agent, a budding cloud business, or an ad engine where every pixel becomes sellable inventory? They also cover Meta's $17 billion settlement with 47 states over teen safety, the special purpose vehicles keeping tens of billions of data-center debt off Meta's balance sheet, why Apple is quietly taking the opposite side of Meta's bet, and why Wall Street rewards Google for the same capex it punishes Meta for. In the end, Daniel rebuilds his valuation model from scratch and decides whether Meta finally earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:45) About Zuckerberg’s Platform Dream

(00:11:30) Why Meta was sued and how it settled

(00:20:53) What the regulatory risk means for Meta’s future

(00:28:33) What Meta’s AI vision looks like

(00:37:30) How AI could revolutionize Meta’s Ads Business

(00:40:47) About the optionality of WhatsApp

(00:48:13) Why AI could make Meta glasses a success

(01:02:20) How Meta is planning to build a Cloud Business

(01:18:40) Meta's valuation discussion

(01:22:47) How much Meta's stock is actually worth

(01:22:57) Whether META will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Zuckerberg’s WSJ Article – The AI Future is for Everyone.

Ben Thompson’s Research at Stratechery.

Check out the original Meta episode.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.

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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Alphabet nearly two years after Shawn's original pitch, tracing how the company transformed from a cash-rich, buyback-driven business into an aggressive spender on AI infrastructure. They walk through what changed across Search, YouTube, Cloud, and Waymo, and unpack why the market's fears around AI disrupting Google were largely unfounded. Along the way, they dig into how Alphabet is funding its buildout, what that means for shareholders, and which questions will determine whether this evolved version of the business is actually better.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:41) Why Shawn’s original Alphabet thesis needed a revisit

(00:06:55) How the AI-kills-search narrative played out in reality

(00:30:28) Why Google Cloud’s margins surprised skeptical investors

(00:43:48) How Waymo went from afterthought to major asset

(00:49:44) How Alphabet’s AI spending flows through its earnings

(01:03:12) What Berkshire Hathaway’s growing stake signals about the company

(01:03:47) Why Alphabet paused buybacks and started raising equity

(01:07:15) Which unresolved questions will define Alphabet’s next few years

(01:13:13) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add to their Alphabet in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Our original podcast deep-dive on Alphabet.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: SpaceX, Microsoft, Meta.

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